"48th Cosa Election Results: RUMP Is Down, FDA Is Up, & TSP Surprises!" by Glüc da Dhi

The past coalition of Liberals, Republicans (now united in the FDA), Moderate Radicals and Progressives will keep its majority in the Cosa. This seems to be the most important (though not very surprising) conclusion of the election results that were revealed two weeks ago. The election did not result in big changes in the composition of the Cosa, although there were some surprises.

The RUMP remains the largest party, with 68 seats. Still, this was not a good result for the party, which again lost Cosa seats, for the sixth consecutive time now. This means the party is now far away from regaining the absolute majority it once had, though it does still have the 67 seats needed to block amendments to the OrgLaw. Still, the party leader of the RUMP, Sir Alexandreu Davinescu, is not unhappy about the results. According to him “the continued confidence of so many voters is not at all disappointing, but instead is something that we are really happy to celebrate.” He did admit that “it's not our best or exactly what we might wish,” but also pointed at the RUMP again getting a plurality of the vote. When asked to interpret the results he also noted that “these results clearly show that an overwhelming majority supports the monarchy of Talossa, and that a plurality of the country considers it one of the most important priorities for the country.” With regards to provincial elections, the RUMP is the largest party in the assemblies of Atatürk, Florencia and Maritiimi-Maxhestic.

The FDA got 47 seats. They too lost a few seats, compared to the combined total of the Liberal Congress and the ZRT during the previous election. However, the FDA did manage to become the second party in Talossa, narrowly beating the MRPT by only one vote (assuming the results are correct). If a similar coalition is formed as during the last term, this would most likely mean that their leader, C. Carlüs Xheraltescù will become the next Seneschal. The members of the LibCons and the ZRT will probably decide this year whether to complete the merger or continue as separate parties. S:reu Xheraltescù was pleased about the second place of his party, though he could not explain why the FDA got more seats than the MRPT; “Maybe our message resonated with more people, I don't know.”

The MRPT received 46 seats, two more than last year. A good result for the party, but since they are now the third party and can only be part of a majority coalition if it includes either the RUMP or the FDA, it doesn’t seem very likely that MRPT leader Lüc da Schir will remain Seneschal for a second term. Da Schir: “I felt proud that
we were able to win more seats and votes, but also sad as we fell short of retaining the lead of the Coalition. We have not been defeated: even though the FDA had a lot of momentum and a lot more seats than us before the general elections, we still were able to improve our previous result. Only a pre-electoral agreement between two other parties prevented us from leading a third straight government.” The MRPT leader was not surprised at the party losing its second place, pointing out that the FreeDems constituent parties had a bigger lead in the previous elections and “were running on a loose manifesto which traditionally appeals to a broader range of voters.” Provincially, the MRPT received the plurality of seats in the assemblies of Benito and Cézembre.

The big surprise of the election was the newly formed Talossan Socialist Party (TSP) which gained 16 seats, and is now the 4th biggest party in Talossa.  The addition of a new left party in Talossa may influence the Talossan political landscape, especially if the TSP continues to grow in the coming years.  The TSP leader, Galen Zavala-Sherby could not be reached for comment in time for this publication, but did release the following statement shortly after the election results were in: “The Talossan Socialist Party expresses its GREAT gratitude for those who supported us in the elections. This means that we will have much more influence than we thought we were going to get within the Cosa. Of course the job is not over, we will need your support in the next elections too, and we are nowhere near the size of the bigger parties but this is a much more expansive result than first thought. Once again Thank You everybody!” Other party leaders indeed expressed their surprise at the TSPs performance. MRPT leader Da Schir said that he was “impressed that the Socialists won so many seats!” 

The Progressives gained one seat for a total of 14. A minor gain, but not much in comparison to historical results of the PP. Their party leader, Owen Edwards, was asked for comment, but declined to speak to Beric'ht Talossan. Two independents also managed to get seats in the Cosa on a write-in ticket. New citizen Nicholas Hayes received four votes and Justice of the CpI, Beneditsch Ardpresteir received two votes, giving them six and three seats respectively. S;reu Ardpresteir has not yet registered his party, however. If he does not register by submitting a 50 word statement and paying the party fee, these seats, along with one seat of the Progressive Party, will remain vacant. Various politicians said they were positively surprised about the performance of smaller parties and independents. Sir Alexandreu said he was “surprised to see how well the TSP and the independent candidates had done, and really happy to see that new diversity grow in a Cosa that is otherwise consolidating.”

Despite almost two weeks having passed since the election results were announced, no public announcements about the status of coalition negotiations have so far been made. The most likely government seems to be a continuation of the current coalition government, including the MRPT and the Progs, only this time led by the Free Democratic Alliance. The leaders of both the MRPT and the FDA hinted at such a coalition. When asked about the election results S;reu Xheraltescù said: “I believe this means we are quite likely to see the first reviensadeir Seneschal in Talossa, signifying that our nation's ready to be discharged from hospital after the reunision operation.”  He also said about the idea of a reviensadeir Seneschal: “I'd be silly to waste that opportunity now, but I'm not discounting the possibility of a number of combinations of parties working."  Da Schir, for his part, stated, "I think that the new Government's policies will pretty much be the same of the last Government.” Neither leader provided any definitive comments about the government or the status of the negotiations though. This means other possible coalitions cannot be ruled out. 

One possibility might be a monarchist government of RUMP and MRPT.  For the RUMP to form a coalition without the MRPT would require either working with the FDA or an unlikely combination of RUMP, Prog, TSP, and Nicholas Hayes. According to Sir Alexandreu, the RUMP is exploring its options. Sir Alexandreu: “I'm not sure what will happen. I know that many leaders have often stated that they think alternance in government is important, but that principle might have died once they came to power.”

Another possibility might be the inclusion of the TSP, or one or both independents instead of, or alongside, the Progressives. There does not seem to be a major reason for the MRPT and FDA not to include the Progressive party though. If the TSP is not included in the coalition we might have a situation where there is both a leftwing and a rightwing opposition, which might change the dynamics of the Cosa by quite a bit.

Either way, with the RUMP losing seats and the TSP gaining them, it could be said that the 48th Cosa is more left-leaning than the 47th one. The same can be said for the Senate, as in Atatürk MRPT member Sevastáin Pinátsch defeated the conservative incumbent, Brad Holmes by a large margin. Surprisingly, not the Atatürk Senäts election, but the one in Florencia was the closest, as write-in candidate Prince Patrick received only one fewer vote than incumbent RUMP senator Pôl d'Aurìbuérg. The Cézembre result was no big surprise, as LibCon member Txosuè Éiric Rôibeardescù ran unopposed, after incumbent senator Glüc da Dhi decided not to run and potential candidate Owen Edwards withdrew because of his duties as a Justice. As a result, s;reu Rôibeardescù received most of the votes in his province.

The turnout of the elections was 58.37%, higher than last year. 136 votes were cast, which is the highest number of votes ever in a Talossan election. All referendums on the ballot passed with comfortable majorities. 47RZ28, which prohibits provincial leaders from being Cunstaval passed with 76 votes in favour and only 15 against, but was not proclaimed by the King. The electoral commission has not yet validated the results.